Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election sparked serious concerns among both experts and ordinary citizens. One reason for this is his controversial stance toward America’s traditional alliances, coupled with his occasional admiration for certain authoritarian leaders—something difficult to explain to democratically minded people.
From the very beginning of his new term, these attitudes became evident. Trump strengthened ties with Saudi Arabia and began sending positive signals toward Russia, while his approach toward the EU, for example, was largely critical. What caused deep surprise, however, was his hostility toward Canada and his remarks suggesting that it would be best for Canada to become an American state. Such comments, generally regarded as highly unusual at such a high political level, escalated into openly offensive treatment of then–Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
If Trump had hoped for a stronger showing by Canada’s Conservatives in the upcoming elections and a subsequent deal with them, those hopes were dashed. Trudeau stepped down as leader of the Liberal Party and as prime minister, succeeded by Mark Carney. He positioned himself as an “anti-Trump” candidate and won a convincing victory on April 28, thereby quashing hopes for a new conservative wave in North America. On the contrary, alongside Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump himself appeared out of place as a reactionary conservative among progressives. This perception is somewhat misleading, of course, given that the U.S. population exceeds that of Canada and Mexico combined, and in Central and South America the U.S. president has allies such as Javier Milei of Argentina and Nayib Bukele of El Salvador.
The attempt to draw Canada into a new conservative orbit, however, failed. Trump chose an approach that consolidated the Liberals, helped them close the polling gap with the Conservatives, and triggered a wave of resentment toward the U.S. in Canada, expressed in an expensive and burdensome boycott of American goods and services.
In popular consciousness, Canada often remains overshadowed by America, despite being the second-largest country in the world by territory, after Russia. Indeed, the two countries have many similarities but also essential differences, well documented in scholarship. As early as the mid-20th century, researcher Seymour Lipset commented that the primary difference between Canada and the U.S. lies in the historically rooted political beliefs of their peoples: Americans are descendants of rebels against the crown, while Canadians are descendants of loyalists. Hence, a significant divergence emerged: Americans tend to harbor deep distrust toward government, viewing it as potentially tyrannical, while Canadians see it as a legitimate instrument for combating inequality and achieving social justice.
Differences are also visible in the political structures of the two countries. The U.S. is a presidential republic with a two-party system, largely shaped by its majoritarian electoral model. Canada also uses a majoritarian system but applies it differently, resulting in a distinctive political culture. As a consequence, Americans are often extremely politically active, and the country has a primary election system that favors the most dedicated and engaged voters. This often results in presidential nominees taking far more radical positions than the national mainstream, reflecting the views of highly committed supporters, who tend to be more extreme.
This stands in sharp contrast to Anthony Downs’s median voter theorem, according to which a moderate candidate close to the views of the majority should win. The result is that committed nationalists, who represent only a small portion of the U.S. population, impose their views first on other Republicans and then, through them, on the rest of the country. Similarly, within the opposition Democratic Party, the so-called “woke” left, also a minority within this broad and complex formation, wields significant local influence.
Canada’s political system functions on a fundamentally different basis and is closer to the British model. Despite having majoritarian elections, its parliament is multiparty, and it is relatively rare for any single political force to secure an absolute majority. Even Mark Carney, despite his decisive victory, failed to achieve one. Besides the Liberals and Conservatives, parties like the New Democrats, Bloc Québécois, and the Greens are also represented. Coalition governments are common and are seen as standard political practice, similar to some European states. Historically, the Liberal Party has been the leading force, positioned as centrist since Pierre Trudeau’s time, allowing it to balance between Conservatives and other, generally left-leaning, parties while winning support for its positions. Many contentious issues still dividing American voters have long been settled in Canada, including same-sex marriage (legalized) and strict gun control.
A few years ago, leading Canadian sociologist Michael Adams examined whether the country might be susceptible to authoritarian populism, concluding that this was unlikely. Canadian voters, unlike their American counterparts, place high trust in experts and rely on their judgment on numerous complex issues. Canada also performs better on various contentious topics in the U.S., including migrant integration, healthcare access, and crime rates.
Trump’s statements bewildered Canadian public opinion and motivated it to unite in defense of its sovereignty. In response, Canada elected a candidate who demonstrated the strongest will to defend it. In view of Donald Trump’s policies, the United States now faces the need to reassess its relationship with a country traditionally among its most loyal allies and historically far more moderate in its criticism than Mexico, where revanchist sentiments over long-lost territories persist to this day.
This development shows that, while the instinct of the “political animal” that leaders like Trump undeniably possess is valuable, ambitious political plans are hard to achieve without deep knowledge and strategic preparation. Fortunately, U.S.–Canadian relations remain peaceful for now, albeit marked by sharp competition.
