Jordan’s foreign policy has long been characterized by a pragmatic approach to regional and global shifts. By maintaining strategic balance and avoiding rigid alignments, Amman has preserved its interests in an increasingly volatile environment. As new geopolitical challenges emerge, Jordan faces the task of recalibrating its diplomatic posture while sustaining its core strategic relationships.
Throughout key historical moments, Jordan has demonstrated an ability to manage complex regional dynamics. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), it maintained a measured stance, favoring economic ties with Baghdad without fully committing to either side. Despite external pressures, including from the United States, Jordan leveraged its geographic position to avoid entanglement in the conflict.
Following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Jordan attempted to mediate between Baghdad and the West. Its opposition to military intervention, rooted in historical ties and broader Arab solidarity, strained relations with Washington. Nonetheless, through strategic engagement, Jordan succeeded in restoring its relationship with the United States by the mid-1990s, culminating in its participation in the Madrid Peace Conference and the 1994 peace treaty with Israel.
The 2003 Iraq War presented another diplomatic test. Jordan abstained from participating militarily but assumed a critical humanitarian and logistical role, hosting Iraqi refugees and supporting post-conflict reconstruction. This approach enabled Amman to sustain functional ties with both Washington and the evolving Iraqi state.
The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency introduces new uncertainties. During his first term, Trump’s Deal of the Century initiative disrupted longstanding parameters around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, directly implicating Jordan’s custodianship over Jerusalem’s holy sites. Should similar policies re-emerge, Jordan will face renewed pressure to reconcile its domestic priorities, regional commitments, and strategic alliance with Washington.
Border security remains a persistent concern. Instability in Syria and Iraq continues to pose threats, particularly with the potential recalibration of U.S. military engagement in the region. Jordan’s ability to reinforce its border defenses and expand security cooperation with European and Gulf partners will be critical to managing these risks.
At the regional level, Arab-Israeli normalization agreements concluded under Trump’s previous administration have shifted the diplomatic landscape. Jordan’s traditional role as a primary interlocutor in the peace process has diminished. To maintain influence, Amman will likely need to diversify its regional partnerships and assert its relevance within emerging diplomatic frameworks.
Economic vulnerabilities add another layer of complexity. Jordan’s dependence on foreign aid, especially from the United States, raises concerns about the conditionality of future assistance. In anticipation of potential shifts, Jordan is likely to intensify its efforts to cultivate stronger economic ties with the European Union, China, and Russia, seeking to mitigate risks associated with overreliance on any single partner.
Going forward, Jordan’s strategy will likely focus on reinforcing its diplomatic flexibility, expanding international partnerships, and investing in defense capabilities. Its track record of navigating regional crises without jeopardizing core interests suggests a capacity for adaptation. However, the evolving geopolitical context—marked by uncertain U.S. policies and shifting regional alliances—will demand a more proactive and diversified foreign policy approach.
In an era of rapid change, Jordan’s ability to balance national security imperatives with the demands of an evolving strategic environment will be essential to preserving its regional role and safeguarding its long-term stability.
