Africa is now clearly the continent with the highest population growth. In the context of the demographic crisis affecting much of the rest of the world—particularly Europe and Asia—the influence of its countries is set to increase. How will Africa’s population expansion change the world and the continent itself?

The demographic crisis has not spared even countries like China or Argentina. Africa remains a notable exception. Although fertility has declined there in recent decades, it is still the highest in the world (4.2 children per woman), which is sufficient to sustain its overall growth. The continent’s population is increasing at three times[1] the global average, accounting for nearly half of the world’s total annual increase. Every two years, Africa gains as many people as live in France. Currently, Africa is home to nearly 1.5 billion people[2], with a majority under the age of 20. The continent has thus been growing demographically at a rate of around 2.42% per year for the past three decades. According to scientific estimates, the number of Africans will reach 2.4 billion by 2050, and the total will peak at 4.2 billion by the end of this century. In other words, the population will nearly triple from its current level (and quadruple from its 2010 level) during this period.

By around 2070, Africa is expected to surpass Asia as the most populous continent. Its share of the global population is projected to rise to 28% in 2050[3], meaning that more than one in four people worldwide will be African, compared to one in 11 in 1960. The United Nations anticipates that over half of global population growth in the next 30 years will come from just eight countries[4]—five of which are African: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania. These projected demographic changes could have profound economic consequences for these countries and may even alter the world’s geopolitical order, with some of them potentially becoming new global powers.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, “Population Growth in Africa and the Rest of the World, 1950–2100”. 2016.

Africa also has the world’s youngest population, which experts say could either be a boon for the continent or worsen poverty, depending on how countries harness this age group for economic growth. The continent’s working-age population (20–64 years)[5] is expected to rise from 883 million in 2024 to 1.6 billion by 2050, representing nearly a quarter of the global workforce. Each year, about 20 million young Africans will enter the labor market. Within the next decade, Africa is set to have the largest labor force in the world[6], surpassing both China and India.

Urbanization[7] is accelerating across the continent as well. The proportion of the urban population has doubled over the past 50 years. The share of people living in cities is higher than in India and is expected to reach 58% by 2030. Africa has 52 cities with more than one million inhabitants—the same number as in Europe.

Source: @geographymap, Threads. “Population of Africa and Europe compared through time.” November 23, 2024.

The so-called population explosion in Africa and other peripheral regions has historically been driven by two key factors[8]: a rapid decline in mortality over the last half-century and sustained high fertility rates. These dynamics continue to fuel population surges in individual countries.

Regional Demographic Hotspots

Nigeria offers a striking example. With 216 million people[9], it is already Africa’s most populous country—and the fastest-growing globally[10]. Within 30 years, Nigeria is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s third-most-populous country. UN estimates[11] suggest Nigeria’s population will double[12] to over 400 million by 2050 and may exceed 728 million by 2100, potentially rivaling China[13]. Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city, is believed by some to already be the world’s largest English-speaking metropolis and is among the fastest-growing urban centers globally[14].

Tanzania is another demographic hotspot. Its population has increased by 37% over the last decade, reaching nearly 63 million. With only a slow decline in fertility, projections suggest the population could rise to 141 million[15] by 2050—comparable to present-day Russia. Dar es Salaam[16], the country’s former capital, is among the fastest-growing cities worldwide and is expected to house over 10 million people by 2050, rivaling metropolises like New York and Cairo.

Source: The Economist. “The Pecking Order of the World’s Population Is Soon to Change.” July 14, 2022.

Although overpopulation and resource scarcity still pose a threat in a few of the continent’s most densely populated areas (such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania), this is not yet the case for Africa as a whole, despite its record growth. Africa is geographically larger than China, India, the United States, Japan, and most of Europe combined. Despite high birth rates, overall population density[17] remains low—roughly 500,000 people per 100 square kilometers (excluding the Sahara), compared to over 4 million in England. If the population were to continue growing at the current rate, overpopulation could occur at some point in the future—but for now, this remains largely theoretical and is unlikely to happen within this century.

Economic Potential, Innovation, and Challenges

What do all these figures mean for Africa’s long-term economic situation? Can the world be optimistic in its expectations? The correlation between population and economic growth in Africa[18] has been positive over the long term, albeit weak. This likely suggests that Africa could turn its growing population into economic expansion in the coming decades, if well harnessed. The continent has a large and thriving market. It is a hotbed of young, budding entrepreneurs in technology and other fields—scientists, doctors, and engineers—who have become symbols of innovation and entrepreneurship, especially in the technology sector.

The incomes of the African population[19] are slowly but steadily increasing. Businesses across the continent are targeting[20] the tens of millions of new consumers emerging every year, representing untapped markets for cosmetics, organic food, and even champagne[21]. The Hilton brand plans to open 65 new hotels on the continent within five years. Credit Suisse estimates[22] that the number of millionaires in Africa—the fastest-growing continent in this regard—will rise to 768,000 by 2027.

Source: OMFIF. “Unlocking Africa’s Population Potential – Population Growth versus GDP Growth in Africa“. August 2023.

The level of education among Africans, including in higher education, is rising. Scientific research in Africa is actively developing, especially in fields such as epidemiology, biology, medicine, agriculture, and geology. The continent is also very active in digitalization. Over the past decade, Africa has made significant progress in digital transformation, with hundreds of millions gaining internet access and making productive use of digital services such as mobile payments and online learning platforms. Africa now leads all continents in online payment adoption. For example, Rwanda[23] has announced a shift away from cash, and in Nigeria[24], court settlements and some contractual payments are now made exclusively in electronic form in the local currency (naira).

Africa’s progress in health data management systems and telehealth service provision is also promising. Technology giants such as Google, IBM, and Microsoft have taken notice and are already playing a major role in supporting innovative African entrepreneurs[25]. Microsoft’s Founders Hub project, for example, aims to help 10,000 African start-ups access more than $500 million in funding—a promising sign for the continent’s tech-savvy youth. However, to meet the human resource demands of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, African countries[26] must significantly expand and modernize their education and training systems to align with the needs of the digital economy. Overall, these figures point to Africa’s enormous future potential.

The Path Forward

However, there are also more pessimistic observers who see substantial obstacles that African states must overcome if they are to fully harness demographic expansion for economic and political development. In their view, Africa’s growing youth population could lead to either an economic boom[27] or a demographic time bomb. Based on current trends in fertility, education, job creation, and economic growth, the business as usual scenario suggests that if no significant changes are made, Africa may not achieve the economic benefits of its rising population by 2030. By contrast, a more optimistic scenario shows that these benefits are achievable—if effective policies are implemented to address the major challenges of population growth, education, and infrastructure.

For example, the size of the workforce in Africa has not kept pace with overall population growth. Since 1990, Africa’s average labor force increase of 2.7% has only slightly exceeded the population growth rate. If the labor force grew proportionally with the working-age population, it could contribute an additional $47 billion annually to Africa’s GDP[28]. Rapid population growth is also putting a strain on infrastructure, reducing productivity. Research shows[29] that poorly maintained roads, railways, and ports increase the cost of traded goods between African countries by approximately 40%.

However, this scenario can be reversed through policies[30] that target specific vulnerabilities and fully leverage the growth of the continent’s largely young population to support economic expansion. It is therefore crucial that policymakers begin addressing the adverse impacts of population pressure while simultaneously making greater efforts to extend and improve basic infrastructure. When combined with improved economic governance, closing financing gaps, and advancing education systems to prepare the workforce for Industry 4.0, these measures could determine the transformational success of the entire continent.

Africa has a unique opportunity to turn its population growth into economic and political expansion. While much of the rest of the world stagnates or declines demographically, Africa stands out. If this moment is managed wisely, African countries could emerge as true global superpowers for the first time in modern history. It is now up to African states to fully seize this opportunity and, through effective policies, transform what will soon be the world’s largest workforce into a source of lasting economic prosperity.

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[1] The Guardian. “Focus Turns to Africa as World Population Reaches 8bn.” The Guardian, November 15, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/nov/15/focus-turns-to-africa-as-world-population-reaches-8bn#:~:text=According%20to%20UN%20projections%2C%20sub,populous%20place%20globally%2C%20surpassing%20Asia.

[2] African Development Bank. “Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures: Human Development.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications/tracking-africa%E2%80%99s-progress-in-figures/human-development

[3] United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. “As Africa’s Population Crosses 1.5 Billion, the Demographic Window Is Opening.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.uneca.org/stories/%28blog%29-as-africa%E2%80%99s-population-crosses-1.5-billion%2C-the-demographic-window-is-opening-getting

[4] International Monetary Fund. “Picture This: Africa’s Future Workforce and Population.” IMF, September 2023. https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Fandd/Article/2023/September/Picture-this-0923.ashx.

[5] Institute for Security Studies. “Reaping Africa’s Demographic Dividend.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/reaping-africas-demographic-dividend

[6] The New York Times. “Africa’s Youth Population and the Future.” The New York Times, October 28, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/28/world/africa/africa-youth-population.html

[7] Smart Cities Dive. “Africa’s Fastest-Growing Cities.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/sustainablecitiescollective/african-cities-fastest-growing-world/248936/

[8] Tushar, et al. “The Population Explosion and Growth Patterns in Africa.” National Center for Biotechnology Information. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10037377/

[9] Africa News. “Nigeria Fears Over Population Growth as World Hits 8 Billion.” Africa News, November 15, 2022. https://www.africanews.com/2022/11/15/nigeria-fears-over-population-growth-as-world-hits-8-billion/

[10] Population Matters. “The Facts and Numbers of Global Population.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://populationmatters.org/the-facts-numbers/

[11] United Nations Population Fund. “Nigeria Population Data.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/NG

[12] Deutsche Welle. “Nigeria’s Population Boom: Path to Poverty or Prosperity?” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.dw.com/en/nigerias-population-boom-path-to-poverty-or-prosperity/a-66186900

[13] Business Insider Africa. “Nigeria to Overtake China as the Second Most Populous Country in the World by 2100.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/nigeria-to-overtake-china-as-the-second-most-populous-country-in-the-world-by-2100/tvrhcng

[14] NBC News. “Lagos, Nigeria, Keeps Growing as World Population Passes 8 Billion.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.nbcnews.com/video/lagos-nigeria-keeps-growing-as-world-population-passes-8-billion-153665093874

[15] World Bank. “Achieving the Demographic Dividend: Tanzania’s Economic Growth.” World Bank Blogs. Accessed May 3, 2025. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/africacan/achieving-demographic-dividend-tanzania-economic-growth-afe-0324

[16] The New York Times. “Africa’s Youth Population and the Future.” The New York Times, October 28, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/28/world/africa/africa-youth-population.html

[17] Survival International. “Too Many Africans.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://survivalinternational.org/articles/3625-too-many-africans

[18] OMFIF. “Unlocking Africa’s Population Potential.” OMFIF, August 2023. https://www.omfif.org/2023/08/unlocking-africas-population-potential/

[19] Tushar, et al. “The Population Explosion and Growth Patterns in Africa.” National Center for Biotechnology Information. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10037377/

[20] The New York Times. “Africa’s Youth Population and the Future.” The New York Times, October 28, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/28/world/africa/africa-youth-population.html

[21] Bloomberg. “Africa’s Thirst for Champagne Could Bring Veuve Clicquot to Kenya and Ghana.” Bloomberg, July 21, 2023. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/africa-s-thirst-for-champagne-could-bring-veuve-cliquot-to-kenya-and-ghana

[22] UBS. “Global Wealth Report.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/global-wealth-report.html

[23] Tech in Africa. “Digital Payments Revolution: Rwanda’s New Virtual Card Solution.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.techinafrica.com/digital-payments-revolution-rwandas-new-virtual-card-solution/

[24] Central Banking. “African Countries Plan to Link Payment Systems – Rwangombwa.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/payments/7961588/african-countries-plan-to-link-payment-systems-rwangombwa

[25] OMFIF. “Unlocking Africa’s Population Potential.” OMFIF, August 2023. https://www.omfif.org/2023/08/unlocking-africas-population-potential/

[26] Tushar, et al. “The Population Explosion and Growth Patterns in Africa.” National Center for Biotechnology Information. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10037377/

[27] https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/reaping-africas-demographic-dividend

[28] Institute for Security Studies. “Reaping Africa’s Demographic Dividend.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.omfif.org/2023/08/unlocking-africas-population-potential/

[29] World Bank. Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Accessed via Chrome Extension.chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/246961468003355256/pdf/521020PUB0EPI1101Official0Use0Only1.pdf

[30] Institute for Security Studies. “Reaping Africa’s Demographic Dividend.” Accessed May 3, 2025. https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/reaping-africas-demographic-dividend